Post Election Notes 1: The more the DAP wins, the more it loses

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DAP, PAS, PN, race, state elections, UMNO

The DAP continued its stellar electoral performance on August 12, winning 45 of the 46 seats it contested.

The DAP’s success derives principally from the fact that it is now perceived by the majority of non-Malays as the last bulwark against the rising tide of Malay-Muslim nationalism in Peninsular Malaysia. Hence, whatever their reservations about the DAP – and there are plenty – when push comes to shove, non-Malays swallow whatever reservations they may have and vote for DAP.

In Penang, for example, many voters are resentful about overdevelopment, land-reclamation issues and the way former deputy chief minister Ramasamy was treated but the fear of losing the state to PAS-dominated PN kept them loyal to the party.

With the votes of the Malay majority divided between PAS, Bersatu, UMNO, PKR and Amanah and the minority non-Malay vote solidly behind the DAP, the party has become the mainstay of the unity government. In Parliament, as well as the state assemblies of Penang, Perak and Selangor, the DAP now has more seats than any of its coalition partners.

However, its electoral success has not translated into greater political power. Indeed, the more it wins, the lower the profile it is obliged to take in order not to spook Malay-Muslim nationalists and create a backlash. With 40 seats in Parliament, for example, it is the largest component on the government side of the House but it has had to settle for junior status in the cabinet.

Fear of a Malay backlash has also obliged the party to abandon or moderate many of its previous policy positions. The DAP has kept silent, for example, on the unity government’s plans to further empower JAKIM or harmonise the civil and sharia codes. And neither has it raised any objections to the prime minister’s statement that he has no plans to make the civil service more inclusive or modify the present quota system to provide better opportunities for non-Malay students.

Far from being a kingmaker, the DAP is actually in a no-win situation. The more seats it wins, the more it incurs the angst and suspicion of Malay-Muslim nationalist groups. And the more it has to worry about a Malay-Muslim backlash, the more it has to compromise on its own agenda.

Consequently, while Malay-Muslim groups accuse the DAP of calling the shots in the unity government, non-Malay groups are increasingly unhappy that the party is not doing enough with the strong mandate it has received from them.

Party strategists like Liew Chin Tong may sneer that PN has reached the limits of its influence^[1] but it is the DAP that is now reaching the limits of its popularity. The more it compromises to stay in power, the more it will lose its Chinese base. This was the MCA’s dilemma; now it is the DAP’s dilemma. In any case, with the Chinese population now in steep decline due to low birth rates and migration, the long-term prospects of the DAP cannot be all that bright.

In the meantime, the hubris and bombast^[2] that followed the party’s outstanding performance in the elections has been helpful. DAP leaders have taunted the Malay-dominated opposition and even condescendingly invited MUDA – a party that represents everything that the DAP once stood for before power corrupted its principles – to dissolve itself and merge with DAP.^[3]

The DAP still doesn’t seem to understand just how deeply reviled it is within the Malay-Muslim community. They could learn something from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim who called on everyone to put aside their differences and work for the good of the country. Even the firebrand ultranationalist Menteri Besar of Kedah, Sanusi Md Nor, made at least a feeble attempt to reach out to all voters after winning 33 of 36 seats in his state.

Going forward, expect PN to continue to harp on the DAP’s so-called dominance of the unity government. Already, nefarious comparisons are being drawn to the May 1969 elections by highlighting the fact that non-Malays now outnumber Malays on the government side of the Selangor assembly.^[4] It will undoubtedly give new impetus to the canard that the Malays are losing power.

This is going to be a recurring opposition theme in the years ahead. With nothing of any substance to offer in terms of real policies, race and religion is their trump card. And so far, their message is resonating well with their base.

Dennis Ignatius | Kuala Lumpur | 17^th August 2023

^[1] The limits of Perikatan Nasional | FMT | 13 August 2023

^[2] Sheer bombast: Kit Siang mocks Perikatan’s failure to sweep state polls | The Vibes |13 August 2023

^[3] Consider merging with DAP, Kit Siang tells Muda |FMT | 13 August 2023

^[4] In a first, non-Malay reps dominate Selangor ruling bloc | Malaysia Now |14 August 2023